Leading up to COP30 in Brazil, the Crux Alliance will be highlighting the most impactful policies for promoting a thriving, 100 percent clean energy economy that benefits all Brazilians. The below blog is an except from a report by the Crux Alliance lead for urban mobility, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy.
Research from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy and the University of California, Davis, finds that Brazil could feasibly reduce public-sector expenditures on urban transport at the local, state, and federal levels by a cumulative $1 trillion BRL through 2050 by using a combination of strategies to support vehicle electrification, compact city planning, and modal shift toward walking, cycling, and public transit.
Furthermore, only the combination of these strategies, not any strategy alone, will be suff cient to approach consistency with the country’s economy-wide commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The need for both electrification and mode shift illustrates how important it will be for Brazil to set ambitious decarbonization goals in this important sector.
This study investigates four possible scenarios for urban passenger transport in Brazil:
- Business as Usual: The current trend for urban passenger travel.
- Electrification (Only): The fastest feasible replacement of internal-combustion vehicles with electric ones.
- Mode Shift (Only): The fastest feasible transformation of city planning priorities in favor of compact land use and public transport, walking, and bicycling.
- Electrification + Shift: The combination of the previous two scenarios.
The estimated requirements to achieve each scenario and the cumulative public-sector expenditure entailed are shown in the chart below.
In addition to cost savings, the Electrification + Shift scenario would reduce electricity consumption by 54 billion KwH per year by 2050 compared to Electrification (Only). Qualitatively, this scenario would improve road safety, promote economic inclusion of marginalized groups, and reduce air pollution.
The research also measures greenhouse gas emissions from urban passenger transportation in each scenario. The results add to a growing body of evidence and show that achieving Brazil’s Paris Agreement commitments will require both electric vehicles and a change in travel patterns. It is insufficient for Electrification or Mode Shift to occur at the fastest possible rate independent of each other—it is only by maximizing both of these complementary strategies that Brazil can reduce emissions fast enough to approach a level consistent with holding global warming below 1.5°C (represented by the blue area in the figure below).
To achieve the Electrification + Mode Shift scenario, Brazil must restructure transportation and land-use policies to prioritize the movement of people rather than vehicles. Such restructuring will entail incentives and mandates for vehicle electrification, construction of compact mixeduse cities, and reallocation of street space and transportation funding from private motorized vehicles to walking, cycling, and public transport.
In all scenarios, cars will still form an important part of the urban transport system, but the Electrification + Mode Shift scenario will offer Brazilians a wide range of travel options using clean, efficient vehicles. With less money spent building roads, governments will have more resources to devote to other uses or to lower taxes. And with less money spent on fuel, Brazilians will have the freedom to invest more in other areas of their life.
By protecting our planet from the worst threats of climate change, we will make it possible for the country to prosper long into the future.